8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Sep 2004

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/11/2004

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Main Features
About this Release

SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

		Sep 04	Aug 04 to Sep 04
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	16,685.3	0.3
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	16,697.4	0.8

		Sep Qtr 04	Jun Qtr 04 to Sep Qtr 04
		$m	% change

Turnover, in volume terms
	Trend estimates	49,572.0	1.1
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	49,547.3	0.9

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimates, percentage change

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates
Graph: Quarterly turnover, in volume terms, Trend estimates, percentage change

SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.3% in September 2004. This follows increases of 0.4% in August and July.
In September 2004, the trend estimate increased in all states and territories except New South Wales which was flat. The largest increases were in Western Australia (+0.8%) and Northern Territory and Queensland (both +0.6%).
Over the three months to September 2004 the trend estimate increased by $178m. Food retailing (+$66m), Other retailing (+$39m) and Department stores (+$38m) had the largest increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.8% (+$139m) in September 2004. This followed a revised small increase of 0.1% (+$21m) in August 2004.
All states and territories recorded growth with Northern Territory (+2.7% or +$4m) and Western Australia (+2.4% or +$40m) having the strongest percentage growth.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 2.8% in September 2004 compared with August 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 4.0%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 1.2%.
Australian turnover rose by 6.9% in September 2004 compared with September 2003. Chains and other large retailers rose by 9.7%, while 'smaller' retailers rose by 3.4%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover rose by 1.1% in the September quarter 2004. This follows an increase of 1.3% in the June quarter 2004. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure rose by 0.9% in the September quarter 2004.

NOTES

CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.

NET PROCEEDS FROM GAMBLING

An electronic release, Contribution of Gambling to Retail Estimates (cat no 8501.0.55.003), will be available on 10 November free of charge from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site. This release will present estimates of Net proceeds from gambling to September quarter 2004 incorporating the new sample design and improved estimation method which were introduced into the main Retail trade series in the July 2004 issue. Refer to the July issue for further information.

In addition, the release will incorporate revisions resulting from the annual review of the seasonal adjustment process of these quarterly series. The annual review was based on data on the new basis up to June quarter 2004.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for September 2004 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	16,267.8	120.1
Change from preceding month ($m)	438.1	41.5
% change from preceding month (%)	2.8	0.3

Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. The aim of the rotation is to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

SUMMARY COMMENTARY

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

After 10 months of moderate trend growth the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series had weak growth in September 2004. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had strong growth for seven and six months, respectively, while Food retailing has had weak growth for the last two months. Hospitality and services has been in decline for four months.

FOOD RETAILING

There was weak trend growth in August and September 2004 after 18 months of moderate growth. Growth in New South Wales and Victoria has weakened since the start of 2004 with Victoria flat for the past four months. Western Australia and the Northern Territory have had the strongest rates of growth in recent months.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been strong trend growth for the last seven months. Over the last six months Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have had strong trend growth with Queensland and Western Australia the strongest. The trend in New South Wales has moderated in the last two months.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been strong growth in the trend estimate in each of the last six months. Victoria, South Australia and the Northern Territory have had strong trend growth for six or more months, Tasmania for four months and Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory for three months. New South Wales has had weak trend growth in the last two months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

The rate of trend growth decreased from June 2003 to March 2004 but has been slightly stronger in recent months. Western Australia is the only state showing sustained strong trend growth. Over the last three months, New south Wales and Victoria have had moderate growth and Queensland has been flat.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

Trend growth was in decline in September and August 2004 after no growth in July. New South Wales has been in decline for 11 months, Queensland for three months and South Australia for two months after a period of strong growth. Northern Territory has been mostly flat or in decline since August 2003. Tasmania has had six months of strong trend growth. The other states have had moderate growth over the last three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last five months, driven by strong growth in Queensland and Western Australia. South Australia was flat in September 2004 after three months of weak growth and six months of decline. New South Wales has been in decline for 11 months and the Australian Capital Territory for six months. Victoria has had nine months of being flat or in decline.

TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate growth for the last six months. Over this period, the rate of trend growth has been slightly stronger or the same as that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

After weak trend growth for five months, the industry has been in decline for the last four months. New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania have been in decline for at least the last three months. Northern Territory has had strong trend growth for the last six months. Victoria has had weak growth for the last three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

After 11 months of weak to moderate trend growth, September 2004 was flat. Over the last six months Department stores has had strong growth. Food, Clothing and soft good and Household good retailing have had moderate trend growth. Recreational good and Other retailing have been in decline over this period. Hospitality and services has been in decline for the last three months.

VICTORIA

After five months of weak trend growth, August and September had moderate trend growth. Over the last six months Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had strong growth. After being in decline, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have shown moderate growth in the last three months. The other industries have had weak trend growth or were flat in this period.

QUEENSLAND

Trend growth has been moderate over the last 10 months. Over the last seven months Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Other retailing have had strong trend growth, Food retailing has had moderate growth, and Hospitality and services has been in decline. Recreational good retailing has been in decline for three months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

In September 2004, the trend continued its fifth month of weak growth. Over the last six months there was strong growth in Clothing and soft good retailing and Department stores. Recreational good retailing was in decline in August and September after 10 months of strong growth. Hospitality and services continued to be in decline and the other industries had weak growth or were flat in September 2004.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Trend growth has been strong for eight months. Department stores and Household good retailing have had strong growth for the last six months. In September 2004, Food and Other retailing had moderate growth after a period of strong growth, and Clothing and soft good and Recreational good retailing had strong growth after being in decline.

TASMANIA

The trend growth was weak in the last two months after five months of moderate growth. Over the last four months Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong trend growth, Household good retailing has had moderate growth, Food retailing has had weak growth and Hospitality and services has been in decline.